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I do see the two possible outcomes, but what does distinguish them at the point of "this is pointless"? What metrics are available to help us understanding which of our toys has the highest chance of success. I know I'm sometimes overly enthusiastic about my ideas, while in reality they are pretty niche. What worked while in a company is presenting your idea and directly ask for money to continue. They either give it as they believe in your idea or they hesitate.

But how does this translate into you own one-man-business? Any ideas on that?

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Hard to say for sure. But having loyal paying customers, constant feature requests than you can handle is always good signs of this isn’t pointless.

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